The Seattle Seahawks are projected to finish 10-7 in the 2026 NFL season. SOG’s game-by-game forecast has the defending Super Bowl champions starting 2-0, reaching their Week 11 bye at 7-3 and holding on for a playoff spot despite a difficult finish.
This is a four-win drop from Seattle’s franchise-record 14-3 season in 2025, but it is not a prediction that the Seahawks will stop being contenders. The 10-7 record reflects meaningful turnover at running back, edge rusher and in the secondary, a change at offensive coordinator and a schedule that becomes much less forgiving after the bye. Seattle remains one of the league’s stronger teams in SOG’s 2026 NFL power rankings, but the path to another championship is narrower.
Seattle Seahawks 2026 Record Prediction
Seattle’s projected 10-7 record describes a team that is still dangerous but more volatile than the 2025 championship group. The defense has enough returning talent to remain among the NFL’s best units, while the offense still features Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, Rashid Shaheed, AJ Barner and all five returning offensive-line starters.
The forecast also builds in regression. Seattle lost four players who filled major roles during the title run, and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak left to become the Las Vegas Raiders’ head coach. Brian Fleury takes over the offense, first-round running back Jadarian Price enters an unsettled backfield and the secondary must replace both Riq Woolen and Coby Bryant.
The projected splits explain how Seattle gets to 10 wins. The Seahawks go 8-1 at Lumen Field but only 2-6 on the road. They finish 4-2 against the NFC West, sweep Arizona and split with both San Francisco and Los Angeles. That divisional record keeps Seattle in the playoff race even as the overall road performance prevents another run at 14 wins.
How the 2026 Projection Compares to Seattle’s 2025 Season
The standard is unusually high because the Seahawks are coming off the best regular season in franchise history. Seattle went 14-3, earned the NFC’s No. 1 seed and beat the New England Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX. The offense scored 28.4 points per game, the defense allowed an NFL-low 17.2 and the team’s plus-191 point differential led the league.
A 10-7 season would therefore represent clear regular-season regression, even if it still ended with a playoff berth. The difference is not that Seattle suddenly lacks high-end talent. It is that the 2025 team combined top-three scoring, the league’s best scoring defense, excellent special teams and an unusually strong 8-0 road record. Repeating all four advantages at once is a demanding expectation.
The 2026 forecast moves most of that regression to the road. Seattle is projected to protect home field against nearly everyone, but it loses six of eight away games. That is the cleanest explanation for the four-win decline. A few road upsets would quickly push the Seahawks above 10-7, while home losses would make the playoff path much less secure.
Seattle Seahawks Offense Outlook
Quarterback and the Brian Fleury Transition
Sam Darnold gives Seattle continuity at the most important position after throwing for 4,048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions during the championship season. His 8.5 yards per attempt showed that the passing game could create chunk plays without requiring excessive volume, and he helped the offense finish third in scoring.
The major change is around him. Brian Fleury replaces Klint Kubiak as offensive coordinator, although Seattle has signaled that the new system will retain much of what worked in 2025. That continuity matters because Darnold was comfortable with play-action, defined reads and intermediate throws off a credible run threat. The offense does not need a total reinvention. It needs Fleury to preserve its timing while adding enough variation to prevent defenses from sitting on last season’s tendencies.
Darnold’s ceiling is high enough to lead another top-10 offense, but ball security remains the pressure point. The projected 10-7 record assumes he continues generating explosive passes while avoiding the multi-turnover games that can erase Seattle’s advantages elsewhere.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Leads a Deep Receiving Group
Jaxon Smith-Njigba enters 2026 as the clear centerpiece after producing 119 receptions, an NFL-leading 1,793 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. He is not merely a high-volume slot target. His 15.1 yards per catch in 2025 showed how dramatically his route tree and downfield influence expanded.
Seattle does not need to force every passing-game answer through one player. Cooper Kupp still provides route detail and situational reliability, while Rashid Shaheed adds vertical speed and open-field value. Tory Horton supplies another field-stretching option. That mix allows Smith-Njigba to move around the formation and attack matchups instead of constantly seeing the defense’s most obvious bracket coverage. His place in SOG’s best wide receivers in the NFL ranking reflects how completely he has grown into a No. 1 role.
The New-Look Running Back Room
Running back is the offense’s largest personnel question. Kenneth Walker III left after rushing for 1,027 yards in 2025 and winning Super Bowl MVP, while Zach Charbonnet is working back from the knee injury he suffered during the postseason. Seattle’s initial active backfield consists of George Holani, Jadarian Price and Emanuel Wilson, with each offering a different reason to earn touches.
Holani opens with familiarity in the system, Price brings first-round explosiveness and receiving potential, and Wilson gives the group a heavier runner with NFL experience. A committee can work, but it must consistently create efficient early-down runs. Fleury’s play-action passing game is more difficult to defend when opponents have to respect outside zone and cutback lanes.
The forecast does not require one back to replace Walker by himself. It requires the group to replace enough of his rushing efficiency, passing-down reliability and explosive-play threat to keep the offense on schedule.
Offensive Line Continuity Is the Stabilizer
All five starting offensive linemen return: Charles Cross, Grey Zabel, Jalen Sundell, Anthony Bradford and Abraham Lucas. That is a significant advantage for an offense changing coordinators and rebuilding its backfield. Cross and Lucas give Seattle an established tackle pairing, while Zabel’s development raises the interior ceiling.
The line’s most important job is not simply reducing Darnold’s sack total. It must make the new running back rotation viable and keep the offense out of obvious passing situations. Seattle ranks among the stronger units in SOG’s 2026 offensive line predictions, and that continuity is one reason the offense can survive more backfield turnover than most teams.
Tight End Usage Can Add Another Layer
AJ Barner set career highs with 52 catches, 519 yards and six touchdowns in 2025, then scored in the Super Bowl. His next step is not just adding receiving volume. It is becoming a player Seattle can use without declaring whether a snap is designed to be a run or pass.
Barner’s blocking, short-yardage work and red-zone size already give him a broad role. If he becomes more dangerous between the numbers and after play-action, defenses will have a harder time dedicating extra coverage to Smith-Njigba. Elijah Arroyo gives the offense another athletic tight end, so Fleury can also use heavier personnel without sacrificing receiving ability.
Seattle Seahawks Defense Outlook
The Defensive Standard Remains Championship-Caliber
Seattle’s defense allowed the fewest points in the NFL in 2025 and finished among the league leaders against the run. Mike Macdonald and defensive coordinator Aden Durde built a unit that could pressure quarterbacks without relying on constant blitzing, disguise coverage before the snap and change responsibilities after it.
The system is demanding, but the core understands it. Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II, DeMarcus Lawrence, Uchenna Nwosu, Ernest Jones IV, Devon Witherspoon, Julian Love and Nick Emmanwori give Seattle impact players at every level. SOG’s 2026 NFL defense rankings place the Seahawks among the league’s best because the returning spine is stronger than the list of departures might suggest.
Interior Pressure Drives the Front
Leonard Williams is the defense’s anchor after a 62-tackle, seven-sack, second-team All-Pro season. His ability to rush from multiple alignments gives Seattle flexibility on passing downs, while Byron Murphy II can win with quickness and power beside him. The front is especially difficult to block when the offense cannot identify which second-level defender is joining the rush.
Williams does not need to lead the team in every category to be its most valuable defender. Interior disruption changes the launch point for opposing quarterbacks and prevents them from stepping away from edge pressure. That is why his presence connects directly to the production of Lawrence, Nwosu, Derick Hall and new addition Dante Fowler Jr. Williams also remains one of the league’s premier players at his position in SOG’s interior defensive line rankings.
Replacing Boye Mafe Requires a Rotation
Boye Mafe’s departure removes a player who produced 20 sacks over four seasons and could threaten tackles with speed. Seattle’s answer is not a one-for-one replacement. Lawrence, Nwosu and Hall remain at the front of the edge rotation, while Fowler adds an experienced rusher who can handle a supporting role.
The key is availability and depth. If the veterans stay healthy and Hall takes another step, the defense can replace Mafe’s snaps collectively. If injuries force Fowler or the younger depth into larger roles than expected, the front may lose some of the wave-after-wave pressure that defined 2025.
The Secondary Has the Highest Defensive Variance
Seattle lost Riq Woolen and Coby Bryant from a championship secondary, leaving both outside-corner depth and safety rotation questions. Devon Witherspoon remains the unit’s movable star, Josh Jobe is positioned for a full-time outside role and Julian Love provides communication and range at safety. Nick Emmanwori’s versatility allows Macdonald to blur the line between safety, nickel defender and box player.
The concern is depth behind that core. Rookie Julian Neal missed valuable preseason time, and Avery Smith joined the team in a late-August trade. Both made the initial 53-man roster, but neither should be expected to reproduce the experience of the departed veterans immediately. Ty Okada’s strong work in 2025 helps soften Bryant’s loss, yet this is still the position group most likely to determine whether Seattle remains a top-three defense or slides closer to the back half of the top 10.
Seattle Seahawks Special Teams Outlook
Special teams were a real part of Seattle’s 2025 advantage, not an afterthought. Michael Dickson remains one of the NFL’s best punters, Jason Myers returns at kicker and Chris Stoll completes an unchanged specialist trio for a fourth consecutive season. That continuity reduces the risk of operational mistakes in close games.
The return game can still tilt field position. Rashid Shaheed is an established punt-return threat, while Tory Horton is listed as the primary kickoff returner. Seattle can be selective with Shaheed’s workload because Horton offers another explosive option. For a team projected to play several tight games, hidden yards from the punt and return units could be the difference between 10-7 and 8-9.
Seattle Seahawks Team Awards Predictions
Team MVP: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Smith-Njigba is the MVP pick because Seattle’s passing game now bends around his ability to win at every level. His 2025 production was not an empty volume spike. He led the league in receiving yards, averaged 15.1 yards per catch and became the rare receiver who could punish off coverage underneath before beating the same defense vertically.
The award case also reflects leverage. Seattle can survive a quiet game from one complementary receiver, but the offense becomes much easier to compress if Smith-Njigba is contained. A second straight season as Darnold’s most reliable chain-mover and explosive target would make him the team’s most valuable non-quarterback and the best choice for this award.
Offensive Player of the Year: Sam Darnold
Darnold gets the offensive award because his performance controls the entire range of outcomes. The Seahawks can win with a committee at running back, and the receiving corps is deep enough to redistribute targets. They cannot reach their ceiling if quarterback play becomes erratic.
A successful season would look similar to 2025 in efficiency but cleaner in high-risk moments: more than 4,000 passing yards is possible, but the more important targets are maintaining an explosive yards-per-attempt figure and reducing turnover-worthy decisions. If Darnold manages the coordinator transition and keeps Seattle in the top 10 of SOG’s NFL offense rankings, the 10-win projection is realistic.
Breakout Player of the Year: AJ Barner
Barner is not starting from obscurity. He already produced 52 catches, six regular-season receiving touchdowns and a Super Bowl score. The breakout prediction is about moving from useful starter to one of the offense’s defining pieces.
His opportunity comes from the structure around him. Defenses must devote attention to Smith-Njigba, Kupp and Shaheed, while the uncertain backfield encourages Seattle to use quick throws and heavier formations. Barner can turn those conditions into more third-down targets, a larger red-zone role and greater influence as a blocker. A complete season would make him much harder to describe as merely a complementary tight end.
Defensive Player of the Year: Leonard Williams
Williams is the defensive pick because the front’s multiplicity begins with him. He can line up over a guard, attack a tackle, absorb double teams and still finish plays. His seven sacks in 2025 only captured part of a season that also earned him second-team All-Pro recognition.
Seattle’s edge rotation changed, but Williams and Murphy give the defense a stable interior base. If Williams again creates pressure without forcing Macdonald to blitz, the coverage unit has more freedom to disguise and the new cornerback depth receives more protection. That makes his value especially high in a season of secondary transition.
Key Players Added by the Seahawks
Seattle’s featured additions address the three areas most affected by offseason departures: running back, cornerback and edge rusher. The list blends two premium draft picks, a veteran free agent and two developmental players who made the initial roster.
Julian Neal, Cornerback
Seattle selected Julian Neal in the third round with the 99th overall pick. He gives the secondary a young outside corner with the size and athletic ability to play physical coverage, but an injury layoff kept him from getting a full preseason.
Neal opens behind Witherspoon and Jobe, which is a reasonable developmental path. His immediate value is providing boundary depth and matchup flexibility. His longer-term importance is larger because Seattle needs to develop a dependable outside starter after Woolen’s departure.
Avery Smith, Cornerback
Avery Smith arrived from the Los Angeles Chargers in a trade just before Seattle set its initial 53-man roster. The undrafted Toledo rookie earned attention with a strong preseason and gives the Seahawks another option in the slot.
The late arrival limits how quickly Smith can absorb one of the NFL’s more complex coverage systems. His early role is likely to be specialized, with preseason performance and special-teams value helping him earn game-day opportunities. If he learns the scheme quickly, he could become important insurance behind Witherspoon.
Jadarian Price, Running Back
Seattle used the final pick of the first round on Jadarian Price because his burst, one-cut style and receiving potential fit the offense. In his final Notre Dame season, Price averaged 6.0 yards per carry, scored 11 rushing touchdowns and added touchdowns as both a receiver and kickoff returner.
Price does not need to dominate touches immediately, especially with Holani and Wilson available. He does need to supply explosive runs that the backfield lost with Walker. His passing-game and return background also gives Fleury ways to get the ball to him before he becomes a complete every-down runner.
Emanuel Wilson, Running Back
Emanuel Wilson gives Seattle a sturdier rushing profile than its other healthy backs. He ran for 1,083 yards at 4.5 yards per carry across three seasons with Green Bay and showed he could handle a larger assignment when he produced 107 yards and two touchdowns in his first NFL start.
Wilson’s clearest path is as a downhill complement who can finish runs and handle difficult carries. If Price supplies the open-field threat and Holani provides familiarity, Wilson can keep Seattle from asking one young back to fill every part of Walker’s old role.
Dante Fowler Jr., Edge Rusher
Dante Fowler Jr. adds experience to a rotation that lost Mafe. Fowler recorded three sacks for Dallas in 2025 and has 58.5 across his career. He also reunites with Aden Durde after previously working with him in Atlanta and Dallas.
Fowler is best viewed as rotational insurance rather than a guaranteed every-down starter. Seattle can use him in pass-rush situations while Lawrence, Nwosu and Hall handle the larger roles. His value rises if injuries strike or if the defense needs a veteran who can execute multiple assignments without a long adjustment period.
Key Players Lost by the Seahawks
The four featured departures all played meaningful roles in Seattle’s championship run. The roster has replacement plans at each position, but the combined loss of proven snaps creates more uncertainty than any one move would by itself.
Riq Woolen, Cornerback
Woolen left for Philadelphia after starting 53 games and recording 12 interceptions with 53 passes defensed over four seasons in Seattle. His rare length and recovery speed allowed the defense to challenge throws that many corners could not reach.
Josh Jobe had already earned a larger role before Woolen departed, so Seattle is not starting from zero. The loss is felt most in depth and physical upside. If Jobe or Witherspoon misses time, the defense will have to lean on far less experienced outside corners.
Coby Bryant, Safety
Bryant developed from a nickel corner into a starting safety and left for Chicago after recording seven interceptions, 139 tackles and 26 starts during his Seattle tenure. His versatility mattered in a defense that constantly changes its post-snap picture.
Ty Okada’s strong play in 11 starts last season gives Seattle a credible in-house answer, and Emmanwori can handle several hybrid responsibilities. The remaining concern is depth. With Bryant gone, an injury at safety could force Seattle to simplify rotations or promote a player from the practice squad.
Boye Mafe, Edge Rusher
Mafe signed with Cincinnati after producing 20 sacks, 24 tackles for loss and 36 quarterback hits in four Seahawks seasons. He was valuable because he could contribute without the defense having to build the pass rush around him.
Seattle still has a strong group, but losing Mafe shortens the rotation. Hall has an opportunity to claim more snaps, and Fowler can replace some veteran production. The defense will be fine if those roles fit together. It becomes more vulnerable if it has to rely too heavily on one edge rusher.
Kenneth Walker III, Running Back
Walker is the most difficult departure to replace. He rushed for 1,027 yards in 2025, finished the postseason with Super Bowl MVP honors and signed with Kansas City. His ability to turn a blocked play into a long gain allowed Seattle to survive imperfect offensive snaps.
The Seahawks responded by drafting Price, signing Wilson and retaining Holani, but the new committee is unproven. Walker’s departure also overlaps with Charbonnet’s knee recovery, so the offense could spend the opening weeks learning which backs it can trust in protection, short yardage and late-game situations.
Seattle Seahawks Game-by-Game Picks
Weeks 1-3: A 2-0 Start Before the First Road Test
Seattle opens at home against New England in a Super Bowl rematch, then travels to Arizona and Washington. The forecast gives the Seahawks two wins before a Week 3 loss to the Commanders. Starting 2-0 matters because the middle of the schedule includes several opponents capable of testing Seattle at the line of scrimmage.
Weeks 4-7: Home Wins Followed by a Two-Game Slide
The Seahawks are projected to beat the Los Angeles Chargers and San Francisco 49ers at home, reaching 4-1. The forecast then gives them consecutive losses at Denver and at home against Kansas City. The Denver game comes on a short Thursday turnaround, while the Chiefs game follows an extended break and brings Walker back to Seattle.
This is the first major stress test for the offense. The projected record assumes Seattle can absorb two losses without allowing the turnover or protection issues from those games to carry into the next stretch.
Weeks 8-10: The Best Stretch of the Forecast
Seattle is projected to sweep a three-game run against Chicago, Arizona and Las Vegas. That moves the Seahawks from 4-3 to 7-3 entering the Week 11 bye. Two of those games are at Lumen Field, and the road game comes against the Raiders, whose staff is led by former Seattle coordinator Klint Kubiak.
This stretch is essential to the 10-win projection. If Seattle drops one of these games, it would need to steal a win from the much tougher post-bye slate.
Weeks 12-14: A 2-1 Reset After the Bye
The Seahawks return with a road loss to San Francisco, then rebound with home wins over Dallas and the New York Giants. The forecast has Seattle at 9-4 after Week 14, which means a playoff position is within reach before the schedule’s hardest closing phase.
The divisional trip to San Francisco is especially important. Seattle already projects a home win over the 49ers, so losing the rematch still leaves a split. A sweep would create the clearest path to outperforming 10-7.
Weeks 15-18: A 1-3 Finish
The prediction has Seattle losing at Philadelphia, beating the Los Angeles Rams at home on Christmas, then falling at Carolina and at the Rams. Three of the final four games are on the road, and two are against NFC teams likely to matter in playoff tiebreakers.
The home win over Los Angeles keeps Seattle’s NFC West record at 4-2, but the projected road losses produce a 10-7 final. This closing stretch is why the article does not treat 10 wins as a floor. A team that reaches Week 15 at 9-4 can still lose seeding, the division or even a playoff spot if it cannot finish on the road.
Seahawks Ceiling, Floor and Playoff Outlook
Best-Case Record: 12-5
Seattle’s path to 12 wins starts with turning two projected road losses into victories. The most plausible flips are Carolina in Week 17 and one of Washington, Denver or San Francisco. If the defense remains top five, Darnold trims the interceptions and the new running back rotation settles quickly, the roster is good enough to challenge for the NFC West.
Worst-Case Record: 8-9
The downside appears if Seattle’s 8-1 projected home record proves too optimistic. Kansas City is already the only predicted home loss, but the Chargers, 49ers, Bears, Cowboys and Rams all present credible challenges. Losing two additional home games while maintaining the projected 2-6 road split would put Seattle around 8-9.
The main routes to that floor are secondary injuries, inconsistent run production and more volatility from Darnold. None has to become catastrophic. A small decline in all three areas would be enough to swing several one-score games.
Most Likely Playoff Outcome: Wild-Card Contender
At 10-7, Seattle profiles as a wild-card team with a chance to win the division if the NFC West race compresses. The projected 4-2 divisional record is strong, but the 3-4 post-bye finish leaves little room to control seeding.
The team’s playoff case is stronger than the raw record because the defense and special teams travel well. The concern is that this specific forecast does not. A 2-6 projected road record would likely send Seattle into the postseason without home-field advantage, requiring the Seahawks to reverse their regular-season pattern immediately.
Seattle Seahawks 2026 Prediction Tables
| Week | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. New England Patriots | Win |
| 2 | at Arizona Cardinals | Win |
| 3 | at Washington Commanders | Loss |
| 4 | vs. Los Angeles Chargers | Win |
| 5 | vs. San Francisco 49ers | Win |
| 6 | at Denver Broncos | Loss |
| 7 | vs. Kansas City Chiefs | Loss |
| 8 | vs. Chicago Bears | Win |
| 9 | vs. Arizona Cardinals | Win |
| 10 | at Las Vegas Raiders | Win |
| 11 | Bye | N/A |
| 12 | at San Francisco 49ers | Loss |
| 13 | vs. Dallas Cowboys | Win |
| 14 | vs. New York Giants | Win |
| 15 | at Philadelphia Eagles | Loss |
| 16 | vs. Los Angeles Rams | Win |
| 17 | at Carolina Panthers | Loss |
| 18 | at Los Angeles Rams | Loss |
| Category | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Projected Record | 10-7 |
| 2025 Record | 14-3, Super Bowl LX champions |
| Projected Home Record | 8-1 |
| Projected Road Record | 2-6 |
| Projected NFC West Record | 4-2 |
| Record Entering Bye | 7-3 |
| Projected Post-Bye Record | 3-4 |
| Team MVP | Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
| Offensive Player of the Year | Sam Darnold |
| Breakout Player of the Year | AJ Barner |
| Defensive Player of the Year | Leonard Williams |
| Best Projected Stretch | Weeks 8-10, 3-0 |
| Toughest Projected Stretch | Weeks 15-18, 1-3 |
| Best-Case Record | 12-5 |
| Worst-Case Record | 8-9 |
| Most Likely Playoff Result | Wild-card berth |
Conclusion
The Seattle Seahawks are projected to finish 10-7 because the championship core remains strong enough to dominate at home, but roster turnover and a difficult road schedule create more week-to-week risk than the team faced in 2025. The forecast depends on Darnold handling the coordinator transition, Smith-Njigba remaining the offense’s defining player and the defense protecting a reworked secondary.
The most important number beyond 10-7 is the projected 8-1 home record. If Seattle protects Lumen Field and finds even one or two more road wins, another division title is realistic. If the home advantage slips, the Seahawks move quickly from contender to the edge of the NFC playoff race.
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