Chicago Bears 2026 Record Prediction & Season Preview

The Chicago Bears are projected to finish 10-7 in the 2026 NFL season. This forecast has Chicago returning to the playoffs, but taking a small step back from the 11-6 team that won the NFC North and reached the divisional round last season.

The offense provides the foundation. Caleb Williams enters his third NFL season and his second in Ben Johnson’s system after setting a franchise record with 3,942 passing yards. Colston Loveland, Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze and D’Andre Swift give Chicago enough playmaking depth to withstand the D.J. Moore trade. The concern is a defense replacing four important starters from a secondary that drove last season’s league-leading turnover margin.

This is a game-by-game projection, not a completed-season recap. The 10-7 record, weekly picks, four team awards and featured roster moves are predictions based on Chicago’s 2026 schedule and current roster. For more franchise coverage, visit SOG’s Chicago Bears all-time rankings and stat leaders hub.

Bears 2026 Record Prediction

Chicago’s projected 10-7 record comes from a specific path. The Bears go 7-2 at Soldier Field, 3-5 on the road, 4-1 against AFC opponents and 2-4 inside the NFC North. That is enough to keep the team above .500 even without repeating the late-game magic and turnover dominance that defined 2025.

The forecast starts 3-1 before consecutive road losses to Green Bay and Atlanta. Chicago then wins four straight games played around its Week 10 bye, reaching 7-3 after beating New Orleans. The final seven games are more difficult. The Bears alternate wins and losses from Thanksgiving through Week 18, finishing 3-4 over that stretch.

This prediction expects the offense to remain one of the better units in the NFC. It does not assume the defense will again lead the league in both takeaways and interception production after losing Kevin Byard III, Nahshon Wright, Jaquan Brisker and Tremaine Edmunds. Chicago can still win 10 games if Williams protects the football and the rebuilt secondary becomes functional by the middle of the season.

The result places the Bears in the Wild Card conversation instead of making them the clear NFC North favorite. Chicago’s wider league position can be compared in SOG’s 2026 NFL power rankings.

What Changed From 2025?

Ben Johnson’s first season changed the expectations around the Bears. Chicago improved from 5-12 in 2024 to 11-6, won its first NFC North title since 2018 and beat Green Bay in the Wild Card round before losing to the Los Angeles Rams in overtime. It was not simply a schedule-driven turnaround. The offense rose from last in total yards in 2024 to sixth in 2025 and scored 441 points, the third-highest total in franchise history.

Williams set the franchise single-season passing record with 3,942 yards and produced a 27-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Chicago also finished third in rushing at 144.5 yards per game while allowing only 24 sacks. That balance gave Johnson answers when opponents took away one part of the offense.

The defense created the other half of the winning formula. Chicago led the NFL with 33 takeaways, 23 interceptions and a plus-22 turnover differential. The Bears went 9-0 when they forced at least two turnovers, but only 3-7 when they produced one or none, including the postseason. That split is the most important warning in this forecast.

Seven comeback wins, including six regular-season victories in games Chicago trailed during the final two minutes, also made the 11-6 record difficult to reproduce. That does not make the wins accidental. It does mean the 2026 Bears need more early control and fewer fourth-quarter rescues. A one-win decline to 10-7 accounts for normal regression while still respecting the offensive progress.

Bears Leadership and Coaching

Ben Johnson Enters Year Two With Higher Expectations

Johnson no longer needs to prove that his offense can translate to Chicago. The Bears finished sixth in yards, ninth in points and third in rushing during his first season, while Williams cut his sack percentage dramatically. The next challenge is sustaining that production after losing Moore and Dalman.

Johnson remains the offensive play caller, which preserves the most important schematic relationship on the team. His second year should allow Williams to play faster at the line, anticipate coverage rotations and spend less time learning the basic language of the offense. Chicago’s ceiling depends on that continuity producing more consistent early-game execution.

Press Taylor Replaces Declan Doyle at Offensive Coordinator

Declan Doyle left after one season to become Baltimore’s offensive coordinator with play-calling responsibility. Chicago promoted Press Taylor from pass game coordinator, keeping a coach who already knows Johnson’s system and Williams’ development plan.

Taylor is not expected to take play-calling duties from Johnson. His value is in weekly preparation, quarterback meetings and preserving the passing-game structure that helped Williams set the franchise yardage record. The promotion favors continuity at a time when the personnel around the quarterback is changing.

Dennis Allen Must Rebuild the Turnover Machine

Dennis Allen’s first Chicago defense generated takeaways at an extraordinary rate. His second group has to replace much of the secondary responsible for that production. Allen still has Montez Sweat, Grady Jarrett, T.J. Edwards and Jaylon Johnson, but the communication structure behind them is different.

The defensive goal cannot be to manufacture another 33 takeaways on command. Chicago needs a steadier down-to-down unit that tackles well, limits explosive plays and creates pressure without exposing inexperienced defensive backs. If the Bears remain too dependent on interceptions, the defense could slide even when the scheme is sound.

Richard Hightower Gives Special Teams Continuity

Richard Hightower remains the special teams coordinator, giving Chicago stability in the one phase that experienced the least structural change. Cairo Santos and Tory Taylor return, while Kalif Raymond adds another proven option in the return game.

That continuity matters because this projection includes several close wins. Chicago cannot afford missed field goals, poor coverage or hidden-yardage losses in games against Minnesota, Seattle, Tampa Bay and Buffalo.

Bears Offense Outlook

Chicago enters 2026 with a legitimate top-10 offensive ceiling. Williams has already shown he can produce within Johnson’s structure, Swift is coming off career highs and the young pass catchers are ready for larger roles. SOG’s 2026 NFL offense rankings provide the leaguewide context for a unit expected to carry more of the team’s burden.

Caleb Williams Has a Clear Year-Three Challenge

Williams’ 2025 season answered the largest question from his rookie year. He stayed healthy, started every game, threw for a franchise-record 3,942 yards and cut Chicago’s sacks allowed from a league-worst problem into a team strength. His 27 touchdown passes against seven interceptions also gave the Bears one of the NFL’s better touchdown-to-turnover profiles.

The next step is less about raw volume and more about command. Williams needs to keep the offense on schedule when defenses take away the first read, reduce the number of drives that require late improvisation and maintain his efficiency without Moore. His current place among the league’s starters can be compared in SOG’s 2026 NFL quarterback rankings.

This forecast names Williams the team MVP because no other player affects the 10-7 path as directly. If he remains healthy and avoids a turnover spike, Chicago can survive defensive regression. If his protection or decision-making slips, a difficult division schedule quickly becomes a problem.

Colston Loveland Becomes the Passing-Game Centerpiece

Loveland led Chicago with 713 receiving yards as a rookie, becoming the first Bears rookie tight end to lead the team in receiving since Mike Ditka in 1961. He added 193 yards in two playoff games and looked comfortable as a route runner from multiple alignments.

Moore’s departure creates a path to more targets, especially on third down and in the red zone. Loveland can threaten linebackers vertically, settle into openings against zone coverage and give Williams a reliable answer when the outside receivers draw safety help. His leaguewide standing is reflected in SOG’s 2026 NFL tight end rankings.

Cole Kmet remains important as a blocker and secondary receiver. The two-tight-end flexibility lets Johnson disguise run and pass intentions without changing personnel, which should help Bradbury and an unsettled left tackle avoid obvious passing situations.

Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze Must Replace D.J. Moore

Chicago did not replace Moore with one established No. 1 receiver. The plan is to redistribute his work. Odunze produced 661 yards and six touchdowns despite dealing with a foot injury late in 2025, while Burden finished his rookie season with 652 receiving yards and flashed greater volume when injuries created an opening.

Odunze gives Williams size and boundary control. Burden can win after the catch, move through the formation and turn shorter completions into explosive plays. Johnson can also use Raymond, Zavion Thomas and the tight ends to create matchup-specific packages.

The trade raises the weekly floor of difficulty. Moore had started every game for five straight seasons and was central to Chicago’s two comeback wins over Green Bay. The younger group may eventually offer more collective flexibility, but it must replace Moore’s route reliability before it can claim to be better.

D’Andre Swift Leads a Productive Backfield

Swift set career highs with 1,087 rushing yards, nine rushing touchdowns and 1,386 yards from scrimmage in 2025. His efficiency benefited from improved blocking and Johnson’s ability to create lighter boxes. He enters the final year of his contract as the clear lead back.

Kyle Monangai gave Chicago a second physical running option as a rookie, finishing with 947 scrimmage yards. His knee issue makes the opening-week workload uncertain, but the Bears still have Roschon Johnson behind Swift. The backfield can preserve balance even if Monangai is eased into the season.

The run game is especially important in this projection’s close home wins. It can protect the new secondary, shorten games and prevent Williams from carrying every third down through extended plays.

The Offensive Line Is Strong but Different

Chicago’s line was one of the NFL’s biggest success stories in 2025. The Bears ranked third in rushing and allowed only 24 sacks. Joe Thuney earned first-team All-Pro recognition, Darnell Wright made the second team and Drew Dalman reached the Pro Bowl while playing every offensive snap.

Dalman’s retirement forced a change at center. Garrett Bradbury brings 105 regular-season starts and started every game for New England during its run to Super Bowl LX. He understands the position, but replacing Dalman’s movement skills and command of the wide-zone run game is not automatic.

Left tackle is the open question. Braxton Jones is healthier, Theo Benedet started eight games as a rookie and Ozzy Trapilo returned earlier than expected from the knee injury he suffered in the Wild Card win. Chicago has options, but no undisputed answer entering Week 1. SOG’s 2026 NFL offensive line rankings show why the rest of the unit still gives the Bears a strong foundation.

Bears Defense Outlook

The defense has the widest range of outcomes on the roster. Chicago could remain disruptive because Allen still has experienced players at every level. It could also fall sharply if the secondary injuries linger and the 2025 takeaway rate proves impossible to repeat. SOG’s 2026 NFL defense rankings reflect the uncertainty.

Montez Sweat and Grady Jarrett Anchor the Front

Sweat led the Bears with 10 sacks last season and remains the front’s most important edge rusher. His pressure must become more consistent because Chicago no longer has the same proven ball production behind him. Austin Booker can provide speed off the opposite edge, but a groin injury has put his Week 1 availability in question.

Jarrett remains the interior leader. Neville Gallimore, Kentavius Street, James Lynch, Jordan van den Berg and Jayden Loving give Chicago a deeper rotation after Gervon Dexter Sr. was traded to Atlanta. The Bears believed that competition made Dexter expendable, but the group still has to replace his six sacks from 2025.

The front does not need one defender to match every lost takeaway. It needs to force hurried throws before the new safety pair is stressed downfield. That is the cleanest way for Allen to protect the secondary during the opening month.

Devin Bush Changes the Linebacker Profile

Bush adds speed to a group that retained T.J. Edwards and D’Marco Jackson. Chicago released Tremaine Edmunds after granting him permission to seek a trade, choosing a different combination of range, cost and role flexibility.

Bush can close space in coverage and pressure from different alignments. Edwards remains the reliable communicator, while Jackson earned a larger role through his work when injuries hit the group last season. Noah Sewell will miss at least the opening four games on the physically unable to perform list, so the early depth will be tested.

Dillon Thieneman and Xavier Woods Rebuild the Safety Room

Chicago lost both starting safeties. Byard led the NFL with seven interceptions and earned first-team All-Pro honors. Brisker brought physicality and experience. The Bears originally signed Coby Bryant after his four-interception season with Seattle, but knee surgery is expected to keep him out for much of the year.

That pushes Thieneman and Woods into major roles. Thieneman, the No. 25 pick in the 2026 draft, has the range and processing ability to become a long-term centerpiece. Woods was added during camp to provide immediate experience after Bryant’s injury. Their communication will determine whether Allen can disguise coverages without surrendering explosive plays.

Jaylon Johnson Is the Secondary’s Essential Veteran

Johnson barely had a chance to influence the 2025 regular season because of multiple groin injuries, but his return gives Chicago a proven outside corner. He is the Defensive Player of the Year pick because the Bears need him to handle top receivers and reduce the amount of help required on the boundary.

His health is not a minor detail. Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson are day-to-day after late-camp injuries, while nickel corner Kyler Gordon will miss at least four games on the PUP list. Clark Phillips III arrived in the Dexter trade, and rookies Malik Muhammad II and Skyler Thomas add depth, but the opening group is less settled than it appears on a standard depth chart.

Johnson’s current standing can be compared in SOG’s 2026 NFL cornerback rankings.

Turnover Regression Is the Central Defensive Risk

Byard and Wright combined for 15 takeaways last season. Wright recovered three fumbles and intercepted five passes, while Byard’s seven interceptions led the league. Both are gone. Chicago also lost Brisker and Edmunds from the middle of the defense.

A defense can remain good after losing playmakers, but it cannot assume replacement defenders will reproduce the same interception totals. The Bears need better pressure consistency and fewer coverage breakdowns so the unit can survive games in which the ball does not bounce its way. This projection expects a decline in takeaways without predicting a complete collapse.

Bears Special Teams Outlook

Cairo Santos remains one of the most trusted players on the roster. He earned game balls after three comeback wins last season and delivered a game-winning 48-yard field goal at Minnesota. His experience in Soldier Field conditions is valuable in a schedule that includes nine home games and a Christmas matchup against Green Bay.

Tory Taylor returns as the punter after another season of learning how to control field position in changing weather. The goal is not simply distance. Chicago needs hang time and placement that give its coverage units a chance to protect a defense carrying several new starters.

Kalif Raymond adds experience as both a receiver and returner. Rookie Zavion Thomas also showed explosive ability during the preseason, giving Hightower multiple options. The return game does not have to produce touchdowns every month to matter. A handful of shortened fields could decide the close wins built into this projection.

Bears Team Awards Prediction

Team MVP: Caleb Williams

Williams is the obvious MVP choice because the offense now carries more responsibility for the final record. Chicago cannot count on another plus-22 turnover margin, so the quarterback must create sustainable scoring drives instead of waiting for short fields.

A successful MVP season does not require 5,000 passing yards. It requires another healthy 17-game schedule, continued turnover control and better command against division opponents. If Williams does that, the Bears can remain a playoff team even if the defense moves closer to league average.

Offensive Player of the Year: Colston Loveland

Loveland is projected to become Williams’ most dependable target. His rookie season already included a team-leading 713 receiving yards, six touchdowns and two strong playoff performances. The Moore trade creates the volume for a larger second-year jump.

This award choice also reflects how Johnson can deploy him. Loveland can line up attached to the formation, in the slot or outside, forcing defenses to reveal coverage intentions. That versatility gives the entire offense cleaner answers.

Breakout Player of the Year: Luther Burden III

Burden’s rookie year was productive enough that the breakout label requires a real step forward. He finished with 652 receiving yards, but much of his larger usage arrived after injuries changed the receiver rotation. In 2026, the opportunity exists from Week 1.

A breakout season would mean becoming a weekly priority rather than an occasional explosive piece. Burden can earn manufactured touches, win in the slot and turn intermediate catches into scoring opportunities. If he approaches or clears 1,000 yards, Chicago will feel much better about trading Moore.

Defensive Player of the Year: Jaylon Johnson

Johnson is the pick because the rebuilt defense needs one dependable coverage anchor. He is coming off an injury-disrupted year, but his established ability gives Allen freedom to tilt help toward Thieneman, Woods or the opposite corner.

The strongest version of this prediction has Johnson healthy for most of the schedule, handling top receivers and restoring stability to a secondary that lost considerable leadership. His value may show up as much in where quarterbacks refuse to throw as in his interception total.

Players Added

Garrett Bradbury, Center

Chicago acquired Bradbury from New England for a 2027 fifth-round pick after Dalman retired. The former first-round selection has started all 105 regular-season games he has played, including all 17 for the Patriots during their Super Bowl LX run.

Bradbury gives the Bears an experienced replacement at the position most responsible for protection calls and interior communication. The concern is whether the run game retains the same movement and precision it had with Dalman. He does not need to be an upgrade for the trade to work, but he must prevent center from becoming a weakness.

Devin Bush, Linebacker

Bush signed a three-year contract to add speed after Chicago moved on from Edmunds. He can pursue outside the tackle box, carry routes in space and be used as a pressure player when Allen wants to change the picture before the snap.

His arrival gives the Bears a more athletic linebacker combination, but it also changes the size and style of the group. Bush’s best value will come if the defensive line keeps him clean enough to attack rather than absorb blocks.

Dillon Thieneman, Safety

The Bears selected Thieneman 25th overall to become a long-term answer in a secondary facing major turnover. He arrives with the range to play deep, the instincts to attack passing lanes and the versatility to move closer to the line when the call requires it.

His role became even more important after Bryant’s knee surgery. Chicago can accept rookie mistakes, but it cannot afford repeated communication errors. Thieneman’s ability to organize the back end will matter as much as his highlight plays.

Neville Gallimore, Defensive Tackle

Gallimore signed a two-year deal and enters his seventh NFL season as part of a rebuilt interior rotation. Chicago does not need him to play every snap. It needs dependable early-down work, enough pocket push to prevent quarterbacks from stepping up and fresh legs across the front.

His presence helped make the late Dexter trade possible. Gallimore, Jarrett, Street and Lynch give Allen several veteran combinations while younger tackles develop behind them.

Kalif Raymond, Wide Receiver and Returner

Raymond brings value that crosses two phases. On offense, he can stretch coverage, handle motion and provide experienced depth behind Odunze and Burden. On special teams, he gives Hightower a proven return option who understands field position and ball security.

He does not have to replace Moore’s target share. His job is to make the roster harder to defend and give Chicago useful snaps when the younger receivers need a breather or the offense wants more speed on the field.

Xavier Woods, Safety

Woods was signed during training camp after injuries thinned the safety room. His experience matters because Thieneman is a rookie and Bryant is expected to miss significant time. Woods gives Allen a defender who has already handled NFL coverage adjustments and formation checks.

The timing leaves less room to master the entire scheme before Week 1. Chicago needs him to make the defense functional early, then expand what it asks of the safety pair as the season progresses.

Players Lost

Kevin Byard III, Safety

Byard signed with New England after leading the NFL with seven interceptions and earning first-team All-Pro honors. His loss removes both production and the veteran voice that organized Allen’s secondary.

Chicago cannot replace that season with one player. Thieneman, Woods and eventually Bryant must divide the coverage, communication and leadership responsibilities Byard handled by himself.

Drew Dalman, Center

Dalman retired at 27 after earning Pro Bowl honors and playing every offensive snap in 2025. His intelligence and movement were central to a run game that finished third in the league.

Bradbury supplies experience, but the transition still affects protection calls and timing. Center is one of the few positions where a subtle decline can influence every offensive series without producing an obvious individual mistake.

D.J. Moore, Wide Receiver

Chicago traded Moore and a 2026 fifth-round pick to Buffalo for a second-round selection. Moore led the Bears’ receivers with 50 catches and 682 yards last season while tying Odunze with six receiving touchdowns.

The trade creates opportunities for Loveland, Burden and Odunze, but it also removes the veteran who caught the decisive touchdowns in both comeback wins over Green Bay. The younger group must prove that greater depth can replace Moore’s reliability in critical moments.

Nahshon Wright, Cornerback

Wright joined the New York Jets after a breakout season in which he led the NFL with eight takeaways, intercepted five passes and earned a Pro Bowl selection. His departure is one of the largest reasons to expect turnover regression.

Johnson’s return helps at one outside spot, but Wright’s production cannot be assigned to the next corner on the depth chart. Chicago needs the pass rush and scheme to create new opportunities.

Tremaine Edmunds, Linebacker

The Bears released Edmunds before free agency, creating cap flexibility and opening a larger role for Jackson before signing Bush. Edmunds brought size, range and four interceptions during Chicago’s takeaway-heavy 2025 season.

Bush changes the athletic profile of the group, but Edwards must absorb more communication responsibility. The transition will be tested immediately while Sewell is unavailable.

Gervon Dexter Sr., Defensive Tackle

Chicago traded Dexter to Atlanta for cornerback Clark Phillips III and a 2027 fifth-round pick after the defensive tackle competition became crowded. Dexter had six sacks in 2025 and 13.5 across his first three seasons.

The trade improves corner depth and adds a future asset, but it also removes a young interior pass rusher. Gallimore, Street, Lynch and the rookies now have to replace those pressure snaps by committee.

Jaquan Brisker, Safety

Brisker signed with Pittsburgh after four seasons in Chicago. His departure, combined with Byard’s, means the Bears are replacing both starting safeties at once.

That type of turnover affects more than individual coverage. Safeties communicate motion, route distributions and run fits across the entire defense. Thieneman’s development and Woods’ experience are crucial because the position has little margin for a slow start.

Early-Season Availability

The Bears enter September with several defensive issues. Bryant and tight end Hayden Large are on injured reserve. Gordon, defensive lineman Shemar Turner and linebacker Noah Sewell are on the PUP list and must miss at least four games. Booker’s groin injury has made his Week 1 status uncertain.

Johnson and Stevenson are considered day-to-day, while Burden has returned to practice. Monangai is week-to-week with a knee issue. None of those updates automatically changes the 10-7 forecast, but the concentration of injuries in the secondary makes the opening four games more volatile.

The schedule helps slightly. Chicago opens against Carolina before playing three consecutive games at Soldier Field. The Bears do not face Detroit, Green Bay or Buffalo during the first month. A 3-1 start gives the injured defense time to regain depth without placing the season in an early hole.

Bears Schedule Analysis

The First Four Games Create a Fast Start

Chicago opens at Carolina, then hosts Minnesota, Philadelphia and the New York Jets. The forecast has the Bears winning three of those games, with the lone loss coming against Philadelphia on Monday night.

That opening is important because the next two games are road trips to Green Bay and Atlanta. Starting 3-1 allows Chicago to absorb consecutive losses without dropping below .500. A slower start would put much more pressure on the late-October national games.

The Bears Go 2-4 in the NFC North

Chicago splits with Minnesota and Detroit but loses both games against Green Bay. The resulting 2-4 division record is the main reason this forecast favors a Wild Card path rather than another NFC North title.

The Packers games are especially important. Chicago beat Green Bay twice at Soldier Field last season, including the Wild Card comeback, but this projection has the Packers responding with a season sweep. The Christmas loss leaves the Bears at 9-6 and makes the final two weeks meaningful.

The AFC Schedule Produces Four Wins

The Bears are projected to beat the Jets, Patriots, Jaguars and Bills while losing at Miami. A 4-1 AFC record offsets the division struggles and supplies the difference between a middling season and 10 wins.

The Buffalo pick is the boldest of the group. It comes in a Saturday night road game late in the season, six days before the Christmas matchup with Green Bay. Chicago wins in this forecast because Williams protects the ball and the run game keeps Buffalo from controlling possession.

Seven Standalone and National Windows Raise the Pressure

Chicago’s schedule includes Monday night games against Philadelphia and Seattle, a Thursday night home game against New England, Sunday night against Tampa Bay, Thanksgiving at Detroit, a Saturday night trip to Buffalo and a Christmas game against Green Bay.

The Bears are projected to go 4-3 in those seven windows. They lose to Philadelphia, Detroit and Green Bay while beating New England, Seattle, Tampa Bay and Buffalo. That record reflects a team capable of handling attention without assuming every emotional game becomes a win.

The Final Seven Games Are a Weekly Test

After reaching 7-3, Chicago plays at Detroit, hosts Jacksonville, travels to Miami and Buffalo, hosts Green Bay and Detroit, then finishes at Minnesota. The forecast alternates results throughout that stretch and produces a 3-4 record.

The travel is the challenge. The Bears have consecutive road games in Miami and Buffalo, then only six days before facing Green Bay on Christmas. They recover to beat Detroit at home but lose the finale in Minnesota. There is no extended collapse, yet the schedule prevents Chicago from matching last season’s 11 wins.

Bears Game-by-Game Picks

Week 1 at Carolina Panthers: Win

Chicago opens by leaning on its offensive line and run game while the defense settles into its new secondary structure. Williams avoids the early mistake that would give Carolina a short field, and Loveland controls the middle of the field. The Bears begin 1-0.

Week 2 vs. Minnesota Vikings: Win

The home opener is the first division test. Chicago’s front handles Minnesota’s run game well enough to create longer third downs, while Williams uses Johnson’s motion packages to identify coverage. Santos closes a one-score win and moves the Bears to 2-0.

Week 3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Loss

Philadelphia creates the type of protection stress Chicago did not face in the first two weeks. The Eagles win enough early downs to keep Williams from controlling the pace, and the Bears’ rebuilt secondary gives up one explosive score. Chicago falls to 2-1 on Monday night.

Week 4 vs. New York Jets: Win

The Bears respond by playing through their defense and special teams. Chicago does not need a huge passing day. Swift keeps the offense ahead of schedule, and the pass rush creates a second-half turnover. The 3-1 start gives the Bears room before consecutive road games.

Week 5 at Green Bay Packers: Loss

Green Bay enters with urgency after losing twice at Soldier Field late last season. The Packers force Chicago into a less balanced game and make the Bears defend the full width of the field. A difficult fourth quarter drops Chicago to 3-2.

Week 6 at Atlanta Falcons: Loss

The second straight road game produces the first losing streak. Atlanta controls the line of scrimmage and keeps Chicago’s pass rush from dictating third down. Williams makes the game competitive, but the Bears leave the red zone without enough touchdowns and return home 3-3.

Week 7 vs. New England Patriots: Win

Chicago rebounds on a short week against the reigning AFC champion. Johnson’s familiarity with Bradbury’s former team helps the offense prepare for the protection challenges. The defense prevents New England from finishing one late drive, and the Bears move back above .500.

Week 8 at Seattle Seahawks: Win

This is one of the most important road wins in the projection. Williams remains patient in a loud environment, and Chicago’s run game limits the number of possessions. Johnson wins a late fourth-down decision, giving the Bears consecutive victories.

Week 9 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Win

Loveland and Burden create the matchup advantage in a Sunday night game. Chicago spreads the field early, then closes with Swift after taking the lead. The defense produces enough pressure to protect the secondary, sending the Bears into the bye at 6-3.

Week 10: Bye

The bye arrives after three consecutive wins and before a short turnaround into Thanksgiving week. Chicago uses it to reassess the secondary, manage the workloads of Monangai and the defensive front, and prepare for eight games in seven weeks.

Week 11 vs. New Orleans Saints: Win

The Bears avoid a flat performance after the bye. Chicago’s offensive line controls the game, Williams converts efficiently on third down and the defense prevents New Orleans from creating explosive plays. The fourth consecutive win played moves the record to 7-3.

Week 12 at Detroit Lions: Loss

Four days after playing New Orleans, Chicago travels to Detroit for Thanksgiving. The Lions’ pace and offensive line expose the Bears’ thinner defensive rotation. Chicago stays close into the second half, but Detroit wins the possession battle and ends the streak.

Week 13 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Win

The Bears return home and let Williams attack a defense that must account for Loveland, Burden and Odunze at every level. Chicago creates an early lead, allowing Allen to become more aggressive with pressure. The Bears improve to 8-4.

Week 14 at Miami Dolphins: Loss

Miami’s speed places stress on the communication between Chicago’s linebackers and safeties. The Bears move the ball but fail to control the game on the ground, leaving their defense exposed to too many possessions. Chicago falls to 8-5.

Week 15 at Buffalo Bills: Win

This is the signature win of the prediction. The Bears shorten the game with Swift and Monangai, Williams avoids giving Buffalo extra possessions and Santos converts a difficult late kick. Chicago reaches nine wins and strengthens its Wild Card position.

Week 16 vs. Green Bay Packers: Loss

The quick turnaround from Buffalo to a Christmas game works against Chicago. Green Bay controls the early portion of the rivalry matchup and forces the Bears to chase. Williams leads a second-half response, but the comeback stops short and the Packers complete the projected sweep.

Week 17 vs. Detroit Lions: Win

Chicago responds in its final home game. The Bears run more effectively than they did on Thanksgiving, and Johnson uses the tight ends to slow Detroit’s pressure. Johnson’s defense produces a late takeaway, securing the team’s 10th win.

Week 18 at Minnesota Vikings: Loss

The regular season ends with another close division game. Minnesota’s defense creates enough disruption to prevent Chicago from controlling third down, and the Vikings finish a late drive at home. The loss completes a 10-7 record and a 2-4 NFC North mark.

Ceiling, Floor and Playoff Outlook

Ceiling: 12-5

The ceiling appears if Williams builds on his 2025 leap, Loveland and Burden absorb Moore’s targets immediately and the offensive line remains one of the league’s best. Defensively, Johnson would need to stay healthy while Thieneman develops quickly enough to stabilize the safety room.

Chicago can reach 12 wins by splitting with Green Bay, turning one of the Atlanta or Miami road losses into a victory and maintaining the projected 7-2 home record. That version of the Bears can defend the NFC North title and challenge for a top-three conference seed.

Most Likely Outcome: 10-7

The central forecast expects the offense to remain good enough to compensate for defensive regression. Chicago starts 3-1, survives a two-game road slide, reaches the bye at 6-3 and finishes 4-4 afterward.

The 7-2 record at Soldier Field and 4-1 mark against the AFC build the winning season. The 2-4 division record and 3-5 road record keep the Bears from repeating as the clear NFC North leader.

Floor: 7-10

The floor becomes realistic if the secondary injuries linger, the defense stops creating short fields and Moore’s absence makes the passing game less reliable. A decline at center or persistent uncertainty at left tackle would place more pressure on Williams to improvise.

Several projected wins are close enough to flip, particularly Minnesota, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Buffalo and Detroit. If Chicago loses three of those games, the record drops below .500 even without a major quarterback injury.

Playoff Prediction

The Bears are projected to earn a Wild Card berth at 10-7. The offense is strong enough to keep Chicago above the middle of the NFC, and seven projected home wins provide a reliable base.

The division title is less likely because the Bears are forecast to go 2-4 against Green Bay, Detroit and Minnesota. Chicago enters the postseason as a dangerous opponent with a quarterback capable of winning late, but with a defense that must prove it can succeed without relying on an exceptional turnover margin.

Bears Prediction Tables

Final Verdict

The Chicago Bears are projected to finish 10-7 and earn a Wild Card berth. The forecast expects another strong offensive season, a 7-2 record at Soldier Field and four wins in five games against AFC opponents. Chicago reaches the Week 10 bye at 6-3, then goes 4-4 through a more difficult second half.

Williams is the MVP pick because his health, command and turnover control hold the entire projection together. Loveland is the Offensive Player of the Year choice because he is ready to become the passing game’s centerpiece. Burden is the breakout selection because Moore’s departure creates a full-season opportunity. Johnson is the Defensive Player of the Year prediction because the rebuilt secondary needs his coverage ability and leadership.

The Bears remain a good team, but the route is different from 2025. They cannot assume another league-leading takeaway total or six regular-season comebacks in the final two minutes. This version wins through a mature quarterback, a deep group of young weapons and one of the NFC’s better home records. The 2-4 division forecast keeps Chicago from repeating as the clear NFC North favorite, but 10 wins are enough to keep the season alive into January.

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